Okay, I’m overstating it a bit. Plenty of people understand risk, but they don’t appear on “Deal or No Deal”.
The rational thing for a contestant is to take the first deal that the banker offers. It’s usually close to the average value or all of the cases, and the contestant walked on stage with nothing. The first offer is a fair deal that makes the contestant much better off than he or she was before meeting Howie.
That doesn’t make for riveting television, although “Deal or No Deal” is more infuriating than riveting. The contestants go on about their skills in picking the cases and the meanings of the different numbers. But it’s random! They ask their families for advice, and an awful lot of the relatives tell them to take the banker’s deal – because it’s a good deal! And all the tension over the calls to the banker up in the booth – like the producer isn’t working off of a sheet based on the average value of the cases remaining? Like the production company doesn’t know the risk?
Please.
It’s a simple lottery. Each case selected changes the odds and the potential payout, but the potential payout is always the average of the amount in the remaining cases. That’s why the deal offered so closely hews to the average.
The popularity of “Deal or No Deal” is the greatest argument for better math education in America. That is all.
