Demographics are the closest thing out there to a reliable fortune teller. A nation’s destiny is foretold in its people; the makeup of the population determines what work will be done, what goods will be in demand, and which politicians will take power. Changing demographics are driving growth in India and China, but they are also posing the greatest risk in those countries.
It’s all so fascinating. Between the two countries, you have two billion people who want soap and toilet paper, diet coke and refrigerators, Cadillac Escalades and titanium hips. They want what we have, from top to bottom. When you realize that China is the kind of place where you need to carry your own tissue packets if you want to use toilet paper in a public restroom, you realize the potential. (I bought several packets featuring characters from Pleasant Goat and the Big Big Wolf, a hugely popular Chinese cartoon.)
The big risk is what happens if there isn’t work for these billions of people. They need money to buy things, and they need to keep busy. Kunal Kumar Kundu writes about this as if affects India. If people aren’t kept busy, they will be angry. They’ll be even more upset if they take the time to get an education but still can’t get work. It’s a huge loss of productivity, and it leads to crime and unrest. This is already a huge problem in the Middle East. India has more people and a larger economy, though. That makes the risk greater.
